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Sure Win Teams



Today's Tips Ranked
Sat 22 Aug 2026 • by win probability
Solid Pick
Sporting CP vs Alverca
1 Liga Portugal 8:30 pm
60%
prob
Solid Pick
Al Ahli SC vs Abha
1 Saudi Professional League 7:00 pm
60%
prob
Solid Pick
Sturm Graz vs Altach
1 Austria Bundesliga 6:30 pm
50%
prob
Solid Pick
Ludogorets vs Slavia Sofia
1 Bulgaria EFBET League 5:00 pm
50%
prob
Solid Pick
Slavia Prague vs Bohemians
1 Czech Chance Liga 7:00 pm
50%
prob
Solid Pick
Qarabag vs Kapaz
1 Azerbaijan Premier League 4:00 pm
50%
prob
Solid Pick
Levski Sofia vs Spartak Varna
1 Bulgaria EFBET League 7:15 pm
50%
prob
Speculative
Espanyol vs Real Madrid
2 La Liga 8:30 pm
20%
prob

Statistical Analysis
Saturday • site avg 74.7% • evidence-based
Sporting CP vs Alverca
1 Liga Portugal 8:30 pm
Supported
Score: 70/100
At 60%, the stated probability is in the workable range but does not represent a high-conviction signal. 1 is running in line with the site average (77.5%). No significant deviation either way.
Al Ahli SC vs Abha
1 Saudi Professional League 7:00 pm
Supported
Score: 70/100
At 60%, the stated probability is in the workable range but does not represent a high-conviction signal. 1 is running in line with the site average (77.5%). No significant deviation either way.
Sturm Graz vs Altach
1 Austria Bundesliga 6:30 pm
Supported
Score: 67/100
A stated probability of 50% is below the site's average threshold. Treat as speculative. 1 is running in line with the site average (77.5%). No significant deviation either way.
Ludogorets vs Slavia Sofia
1 Bulgaria EFBET League 5:00 pm
Supported
Score: 67/100
A stated probability of 50% is below the site's average threshold. Treat as speculative. 1 is running in line with the site average (77.5%). No significant deviation either way.
Slavia Prague vs Bohemians
1 Czech Chance Liga 7:00 pm
Supported
Score: 67/100
A stated probability of 50% is below the site's average threshold. Treat as speculative. 1 is running in line with the site average (77.5%). No significant deviation either way.
Qarabag vs Kapaz
1 Azerbaijan Premier League 4:00 pm
Supported
Score: 67/100
A stated probability of 50% is below the site's average threshold. Treat as speculative. 1 is running in line with the site average (77.5%). No significant deviation either way.
Levski Sofia vs Spartak Varna
1 Bulgaria EFBET League 7:15 pm
Supported
Score: 67/100
A stated probability of 50% is below the site's average threshold. Treat as speculative. 1 is running in line with the site average (77.5%). No significant deviation either way.
Espanyol vs Real Madrid
2 La Liga 8:30 pm
Marginal
Score: 56/100
A stated probability of 20% is below the site's average threshold. Treat as speculative. 2 is running in line with the site average (76.7%). No significant deviation either way.

Analysis based on historical win rate data and stated probability. Not financial advice. Please bet responsibly.


Tip Explainers
Click any question to see the data behind it
Sporting CP vs Alverca 1
Our model assigns a win probability of 60% to this outcome. Historically, 1 tips have settled at 77.5% over the last 90 days (271 tips graded). These factors together support the recommendation.
77.5% on 1 60% probability
Over the last 90 days, 1 tips have returned 210 wins from 271 settled tips (77.5%). This is above our site-wide average of 74.7%, indicating this market type performs particularly well in our analysis.
Key team news is the most likely disruptor: confirmed absences of first-choice players, particularly the goalkeeper or main striker, can shift the probability significantly. Late lineup changes, pitch conditions, or updated injury reports published closer to kickoff should be checked before placing any bet. Odds movement at the bookmaker (shortening or lengthening of the price after publication) may also signal late information entering the market.
Al Ahli SC vs Abha 1
Our model assigns a win probability of 60% to this outcome. Historically, 1 tips have settled at 77.5% over the last 90 days (271 tips graded). These factors together support the recommendation.
77.5% on 1 60% probability
Over the last 90 days, 1 tips have returned 210 wins from 271 settled tips (77.5%). This is above our site-wide average of 74.7%, indicating this market type performs particularly well in our analysis.
Key team news is the most likely disruptor: confirmed absences of first-choice players, particularly the goalkeeper or main striker, can shift the probability significantly. Late lineup changes, pitch conditions, or updated injury reports published closer to kickoff should be checked before placing any bet. Odds movement at the bookmaker (shortening or lengthening of the price after publication) may also signal late information entering the market.
Sturm Graz vs Altach 1
Our model assigns a win probability of 50% to this outcome. Historically, 1 tips have settled at 77.5% over the last 90 days (271 tips graded). These factors together support the recommendation.
77.5% on 1 50% probability
Over the last 90 days, 1 tips have returned 210 wins from 271 settled tips (77.5%). This is above our site-wide average of 74.7%, indicating this market type performs particularly well in our analysis.
Key team news is the most likely disruptor: confirmed absences of first-choice players, particularly the goalkeeper or main striker, can shift the probability significantly. Late lineup changes, pitch conditions, or updated injury reports published closer to kickoff should be checked before placing any bet. Odds movement at the bookmaker (shortening or lengthening of the price after publication) may also signal late information entering the market.
Ludogorets vs Slavia Sofia 1
Our model assigns a win probability of 50% to this outcome. Historically, 1 tips have settled at 77.5% over the last 90 days (271 tips graded). These factors together support the recommendation.
77.5% on 1 50% probability
Over the last 90 days, 1 tips have returned 210 wins from 271 settled tips (77.5%). This is above our site-wide average of 74.7%, indicating this market type performs particularly well in our analysis.
Key team news is the most likely disruptor: confirmed absences of first-choice players, particularly the goalkeeper or main striker, can shift the probability significantly. Late lineup changes, pitch conditions, or updated injury reports published closer to kickoff should be checked before placing any bet. Odds movement at the bookmaker (shortening or lengthening of the price after publication) may also signal late information entering the market.
Slavia Prague vs Bohemians 1
Our model assigns a win probability of 50% to this outcome. Historically, 1 tips have settled at 77.5% over the last 90 days (271 tips graded). These factors together support the recommendation.
77.5% on 1 50% probability
Over the last 90 days, 1 tips have returned 210 wins from 271 settled tips (77.5%). This is above our site-wide average of 74.7%, indicating this market type performs particularly well in our analysis.
Key team news is the most likely disruptor: confirmed absences of first-choice players, particularly the goalkeeper or main striker, can shift the probability significantly. Late lineup changes, pitch conditions, or updated injury reports published closer to kickoff should be checked before placing any bet. Odds movement at the bookmaker (shortening or lengthening of the price after publication) may also signal late information entering the market.
Qarabag vs Kapaz 1
Our model assigns a win probability of 50% to this outcome. Historically, 1 tips have settled at 77.5% over the last 90 days (271 tips graded). These factors together support the recommendation.
77.5% on 1 50% probability
Over the last 90 days, 1 tips have returned 210 wins from 271 settled tips (77.5%). This is above our site-wide average of 74.7%, indicating this market type performs particularly well in our analysis.
Key team news is the most likely disruptor: confirmed absences of first-choice players, particularly the goalkeeper or main striker, can shift the probability significantly. Late lineup changes, pitch conditions, or updated injury reports published closer to kickoff should be checked before placing any bet. Odds movement at the bookmaker (shortening or lengthening of the price after publication) may also signal late information entering the market.
Levski Sofia vs Spartak Varna 1
Our model assigns a win probability of 50% to this outcome. Historically, 1 tips have settled at 77.5% over the last 90 days (271 tips graded). These factors together support the recommendation.
77.5% on 1 50% probability
Over the last 90 days, 1 tips have returned 210 wins from 271 settled tips (77.5%). This is above our site-wide average of 74.7%, indicating this market type performs particularly well in our analysis.
Key team news is the most likely disruptor: confirmed absences of first-choice players, particularly the goalkeeper or main striker, can shift the probability significantly. Late lineup changes, pitch conditions, or updated injury reports published closer to kickoff should be checked before placing any bet. Odds movement at the bookmaker (shortening or lengthening of the price after publication) may also signal late information entering the market.
Espanyol vs Real Madrid 2
Our model assigns a win probability of 20% to this outcome. Historically, 2 tips have settled at 76.7% over the last 90 days (60 tips graded). These factors together support the recommendation.
76.7% on 2 20% probability
Over the last 90 days, 2 tips have returned 46 wins from 60 settled tips (76.7%). This is above our site-wide average of 74.7%, indicating this market type performs particularly well in our analysis.
Key team news is the most likely disruptor: confirmed absences of first-choice players, particularly the goalkeeper or main striker, can shift the probability significantly. Late lineup changes, pitch conditions, or updated injury reports published closer to kickoff should be checked before placing any bet. Odds movement at the bookmaker (shortening or lengthening of the price after publication) may also signal late information entering the market.

Latest Winnings

20 Aug 2026 • Europa League Qualifier Lech Poznan vs Thun Over 2.5 @1.70
7-0
20 Aug 2026 • Saudi Professional League Al Fayha vs Al Hilal 2 @1.21
0-3
20 Aug 2026 • Europa League Qualifier Jagiellonia vs Iberia 1999 1 @1.36
4-0
20 Aug 2026 • Conference League Qualifier Braga vs Austria Vienna 1 @1.37
2-0
20 Aug 2026 • Europa League Qualifier Benfica vs Aarhus 1 @1.15
3-1
20 Aug 2026 • Brazil Paulista U20 Sao Paulo U20 vs Paulinense U20 1 @1.27
2-0
19 Aug 2026 • Iran Pro League Persepolis vs Esteghlal Khuzestan 1 @1.27
4-1
19 Aug 2026 • La Liga Atletico Madrid vs Malaga 1 @1.34
2-0
19 Aug 2026 • Champions League Qualifier Slovan Bratislava vs Celje 1X @1.17
1-1
19 Aug 2026 • Denmark A Liga Women Fortuna Hjorring W vs Aarhus W 1 @1.22
3-0
19 Aug 2026 • Champions League Qualifier Celtic vs LASK Over 1.5 @1.20
3-0
19 Aug 2026 • South Africa Premiership Mamelodi Sundowns vs Marumo Gallants 1 @1.24
2-0
19 Aug 2026 • Germany Regionalliga North Werder Bremen II vs SC Weiche 08 Over 2.5 @1.34
1-2
19 Aug 2026 • Australia NPL Victoria Preston Lions vs Melbourne City U21 1 @1.23
4-0
18 Aug 2026 • Brazil Paulista U20 Gremio Prudente U20 vs RB Bragantino U20 2 @1.35
1-3
18 Aug 2026 • Ireland N'League Women Shelbourne W vs Wexford W 1 @1.42
1-0
18 Aug 2026 • Champions League Qualifier Dinamo Zagreb vs Viking Over 1.5 @1.16
2-2
18 Aug 2026 • Sweden Div 2 Sodra Gotaland Nosaby vs IFK Trelleborg Over 2.5 @1.40
0-3
18 Aug 2026 • China Super League Shanghai Shenhua vs Beijing Guoan Over 2.5 @1.38
0-3
18 Aug 2026 • Saudi King Cup Al Diriyah vs Al Nassr 2 @1.32
1-4

Verified Win Rate
Last 30 days • 194 settled tips
74.7%
Excellent
Won (145) 74.7%
Lost (49) 25.3%
145W
49L
145
Won
49
Lost
194
Settled
18+ Please gamble responsibly. BeGambleAware

Performance by Market
1 Top market
85W / 26L • 111 tips
76.6%
Over 1.5 Top market
18W / 6L • 24 tips
75%
Over 2.5 Top market
24W / 8L • 32 tips
75%
2 Top market
13W / 5L • 18 tips
72.2%
1X Solid
5W / 4L • 9 tips
55.6%

Win Rate Grid
Market type × day of week • last 180 days
Market MonTueWedThuFriSatSun Total
1 70% 81% 87% 76% 74% 73% 72% 77%
1X 72% 92% 73% 80% 86% 100% 81%
2 88% 69% 81% 57% 69% 72% 83% 74%
BTTS
Over 1.5 69% 81% 75% 78% 75% 100% 78%
Over 2.5 71% 74% 69% 65% 73% 73% 83% 71%
X2 43%
Key: <42% 42-54% 55-64% 65-74% >=75%

League Momentum
7-day rate vs 30-day baseline • hottest first
Europa League Qualifier
0%baseline 81.8%100%
100%
recent
+18.2pp
Brazil Paulista U20
0%baseline 83.3%100%
83.3%
recent
+0pp
Champions League Qualifier
0%baseline 100%100%
100%
recent
+0pp
Club Friendly
0%baseline 42.9%100%
42.9%
recent
+0pp
Conference League Qualifiers
0%baseline 62.5%100%
62.5%
recent
+0pp
Latvia Nakotnes liga
0%baseline 60%100%
60%
recent
+0pp
Lithuania I Lyga
0%baseline 60%100%
60%
recent
+0pp
Conference League Qualifier
0%baseline 63.2%100%
33.3%
recent
-29.9pp

pp = percentage points vs 30-day baseline. Grey marker = baseline position.


Market Depth Index
Volume vs accuracy • where confidence is highest • last 90 days

Each market is scored on two factors: how often it is published (volume) and how often it succeeds (accuracy). Markets with high depth on both measures represent the strongest areas of the site's analytical record.

1
1
Volume 271 tips
Accuracy 77.5%
High confidence -- published frequently and delivers.
STRONG 210W / 61L
2
Over 2.5
Volume 75 tips
Accuracy 72%
Selective publishing with strong returns. Targeted edge.
STRONG 54W / 21L
3
2
Volume 60 tips
Accuracy 76.7%
Selective publishing with strong returns. Targeted edge.
STRONG 46W / 14L
4
Over 1.5
Volume 58 tips
Accuracy 77.6%
Selective publishing with strong returns. Targeted edge.
STRONG 45W / 13L
5
1X
Volume 37 tips
Accuracy 75.7%
Selective publishing with strong returns. Targeted edge.
STRONG 28W / 9L
6
X2
Volume 5 tips
Accuracy 60%
Low volume, decent returns. Early evidence of edge.
SOLID 3W / 2L

Min. 3 settled tips required to appear.


Public Results Record
Last 30 graded tips • updated after every result
86.7%
Accuracy
26
Won
4
Lost
0
Void
30
Total
Date Match Market Result
20 Aug 2026Lech Poznan vs Thun
Europa League Qualifier
Over 2.5✓ Won
20 Aug 2026Atalanta vs Hapoel Tel Aviv
Conference League Qualifier
1✗ Lost
20 Aug 2026Twente vs Qarabag
Conference League Qualifier
Over 1.5✗ Lost
20 Aug 2026Al Fayha vs Al Hilal
Saudi Professional League
2✓ Won
20 Aug 2026Jagiellonia vs Iberia 1999
Europa League Qualifier
1✓ Won
20 Aug 2026Braga vs Austria Vienna
Conference League Qualifier
1✓ Won
20 Aug 2026Benfica vs Aarhus
Europa League Qualifier
1✓ Won
20 Aug 2026Sao Paulo U20 vs Paulinense U20
Brazil Paulista U20
1✓ Won
19 Aug 2026Persepolis vs Esteghlal Khuzestan
Iran Pro League
1✓ Won
19 Aug 2026Atletico Madrid vs Malaga
La Liga
1✓ Won

All results logged before kickoff. Void tips excluded from accuracy calculation. Click any match for full details.


Market Consistency Tracker
Rolling 30-day windows over 90 days • steadiest markets first

A high win rate is only part of the picture. This tracker shows whether each market delivers consistently or in streaks. Steady markets produce more predictable returns over time.

1 avg 77.5% • range ±1.4%
Steady
76.6%
0-30d
76.5%
30-60d
79.3%
60-90d

Win rate has been consistent across all three rolling windows. Reliable market for planning.

2 avg 75.3% • range ±4.4%
Steady
72.2%
0-30d
72.7%
30-60d
81%
60-90d

Win rate has been consistent across all three rolling windows. Reliable market for planning.

Over 2.5 avg 71.7% • range ±6.9%
Variable
75%
0-30d
76.9%
30-60d
63.2%
60-90d

Some variation across rolling windows. Performance is directional but not uniform.

Over 1.5 avg 76.4% • range ±7.5%
Variable
75%
0-30d
69.6%
30-60d
84.6%
60-90d

Some variation across rolling windows. Performance is directional but not uniform.

1X avg 71.7% • range ±16.3%
Volatile
55.6%
0-30d
71.4%
30-60d
88.2%
60-90d

Wide spread across rolling windows. Strong runs followed by weaker periods. Streak-dependent.

Steady = <=12pp spread. Variable = 13-25pp. Volatile = >25pp. Min. 5 tips per window to display. Windows run oldest to newest (left to right).


74.7%
30-day win rate
194 verified tips
77.1%
7-Day Rate
145
Tips Won
49
Tips Lost
194
Settled
Full Results →



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