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Must Win Teams Today

Must Win Teams Today

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18th Jul 2026

« Prev Day
1:00 pm Latvia Nakotnes liga
Marupe vs Metta
VS
 2 1.23 Stats Analysis
8:00 pm Canadian Premier League
Cavalry vs HFX Wanderers
VS
 1 1.36 Stats Analysis
2:30 pm Belarusian Cup
FC Slonim vs Isloch
VS
 2 1.17 Stats Analysis
5:00 pm Norway Eliteserien
Viking vs Sandefjord
VS
 1 1.28 Stats Analysis
5:00 pm Iceland Division 1
Throttur vs Volsungor
VS
 1 1.20 Stats Analysis
5:30 pm Belarusian Cup
Uni X Labs vs Baranovici
VS
 2 1.33 Stats Analysis
4:00 pm Ireland National League Women
Shelbourne W vs Cork City W
VS
 1 1.18 Stats Analysis

Today's Tips Ranked
Sat 18 Jul 2026 • by win probability
Solid Pick
Shelbourne W vs Cork City W
1 Ireland National League Women 4:00 pm
60%
prob
Solid Pick
Throttur vs Volsungor
1 Iceland Division 1 5:00 pm
50%
prob
Solid Pick
Viking vs Sandefjord
1 Norway Eliteserien 5:00 pm
50%
prob
Solid Pick
Cavalry vs HFX Wanderers
1 Canadian Premier League 8:00 pm
50%
prob
Speculative
Uni X Labs vs Baranovici
2 Belarusian Cup 5:30 pm
20%
prob
Speculative
FC Slonim vs Isloch
2 Belarusian Cup 2:30 pm
20%
prob
Speculative
Marupe vs Metta
2 Latvia Nakotnes liga 1:00 pm
20%
prob

Statistical Analysis
Saturday • site avg 75.8% • evidence-based
Shelbourne W vs Cork City W
1 Ireland National League Women 4:00 pm
Supported
Score: 71/100
At 60%, the stated probability is in the workable range but does not represent a high-conviction signal. 1 is running in line with the site average (79.6%). No significant deviation either way.
Throttur vs Volsungor
1 Iceland Division 1 5:00 pm
Supported
Score: 68/100
A stated probability of 50% is below the site's average threshold. Treat as speculative. 1 is running in line with the site average (79.6%). No significant deviation either way.
Viking vs Sandefjord
1 Norway Eliteserien 5:00 pm
Supported
Score: 68/100
A stated probability of 50% is below the site's average threshold. Treat as speculative. 1 is running in line with the site average (79.6%). No significant deviation either way.
Cavalry vs HFX Wanderers
1 Canadian Premier League 8:00 pm
Supported
Score: 68/100
A stated probability of 50% is below the site's average threshold. Treat as speculative. 1 is running in line with the site average (79.6%). No significant deviation either way.
Uni X Labs vs Baranovici
2 Belarusian Cup 5:30 pm
Marginal
Score: 57/100
A stated probability of 20% is below the site's average threshold. Treat as speculative. 2 is running in line with the site average (78.4%). No significant deviation either way.
FC Slonim vs Isloch
2 Belarusian Cup 2:30 pm
Marginal
Score: 57/100
A stated probability of 20% is below the site's average threshold. Treat as speculative. 2 is running in line with the site average (78.4%). No significant deviation either way.
Marupe vs Metta
2 Latvia Nakotnes liga 1:00 pm
Marginal
Score: 57/100
A stated probability of 20% is below the site's average threshold. Treat as speculative. 2 is running in line with the site average (78.4%). No significant deviation either way.

Analysis based on historical win rate data and stated probability. Not financial advice. Please bet responsibly.


Tip Explainers
Click any question to see the data behind it
Shelbourne W vs Cork City W 1
Our model assigns a win probability of 60% to this outcome. Historically, 1 tips have settled at 79.6% over the last 90 days (240 tips graded). These factors together support the recommendation.
79.6% on 1 60% probability
Over the last 90 days, 1 tips have returned 191 wins from 240 settled tips (79.6%). This is above our site-wide average of 75.8%, indicating this market type performs particularly well in our analysis.
Key team news is the most likely disruptor: confirmed absences of first-choice players, particularly the goalkeeper or main striker, can shift the probability significantly. Late lineup changes, pitch conditions, or updated injury reports published closer to kickoff should be checked before placing any bet. Odds movement at the bookmaker (shortening or lengthening of the price after publication) may also signal late information entering the market.
Throttur vs Volsungor 1
Our model assigns a win probability of 50% to this outcome. Historically, 1 tips have settled at 79.6% over the last 90 days (240 tips graded). These factors together support the recommendation.
79.6% on 1 50% probability
Over the last 90 days, 1 tips have returned 191 wins from 240 settled tips (79.6%). This is above our site-wide average of 75.8%, indicating this market type performs particularly well in our analysis.
Key team news is the most likely disruptor: confirmed absences of first-choice players, particularly the goalkeeper or main striker, can shift the probability significantly. Late lineup changes, pitch conditions, or updated injury reports published closer to kickoff should be checked before placing any bet. Odds movement at the bookmaker (shortening or lengthening of the price after publication) may also signal late information entering the market.
Viking vs Sandefjord 1
Our model assigns a win probability of 50% to this outcome. Historically, 1 tips have settled at 79.6% over the last 90 days (240 tips graded). These factors together support the recommendation.
79.6% on 1 50% probability
Over the last 90 days, 1 tips have returned 191 wins from 240 settled tips (79.6%). This is above our site-wide average of 75.8%, indicating this market type performs particularly well in our analysis.
Key team news is the most likely disruptor: confirmed absences of first-choice players, particularly the goalkeeper or main striker, can shift the probability significantly. Late lineup changes, pitch conditions, or updated injury reports published closer to kickoff should be checked before placing any bet. Odds movement at the bookmaker (shortening or lengthening of the price after publication) may also signal late information entering the market.
Cavalry vs HFX Wanderers 1
Our model assigns a win probability of 50% to this outcome. Historically, 1 tips have settled at 79.6% over the last 90 days (240 tips graded). These factors together support the recommendation.
79.6% on 1 50% probability
Over the last 90 days, 1 tips have returned 191 wins from 240 settled tips (79.6%). This is above our site-wide average of 75.8%, indicating this market type performs particularly well in our analysis.
Key team news is the most likely disruptor: confirmed absences of first-choice players, particularly the goalkeeper or main striker, can shift the probability significantly. Late lineup changes, pitch conditions, or updated injury reports published closer to kickoff should be checked before placing any bet. Odds movement at the bookmaker (shortening or lengthening of the price after publication) may also signal late information entering the market.
Uni X Labs vs Baranovici 2
Our model assigns a win probability of 20% to this outcome. Historically, 2 tips have settled at 78.4% over the last 90 days (51 tips graded). These factors together support the recommendation.
78.4% on 2 20% probability
Over the last 90 days, 2 tips have returned 40 wins from 51 settled tips (78.4%). This is above our site-wide average of 75.8%, indicating this market type performs particularly well in our analysis.
Key team news is the most likely disruptor: confirmed absences of first-choice players, particularly the goalkeeper or main striker, can shift the probability significantly. Late lineup changes, pitch conditions, or updated injury reports published closer to kickoff should be checked before placing any bet. Odds movement at the bookmaker (shortening or lengthening of the price after publication) may also signal late information entering the market.
FC Slonim vs Isloch 2
Our model assigns a win probability of 20% to this outcome. Historically, 2 tips have settled at 78.4% over the last 90 days (51 tips graded). These factors together support the recommendation.
78.4% on 2 20% probability
Over the last 90 days, 2 tips have returned 40 wins from 51 settled tips (78.4%). This is above our site-wide average of 75.8%, indicating this market type performs particularly well in our analysis.
Key team news is the most likely disruptor: confirmed absences of first-choice players, particularly the goalkeeper or main striker, can shift the probability significantly. Late lineup changes, pitch conditions, or updated injury reports published closer to kickoff should be checked before placing any bet. Odds movement at the bookmaker (shortening or lengthening of the price after publication) may also signal late information entering the market.
Marupe vs Metta 2
Our model assigns a win probability of 20% to this outcome. Historically, 2 tips have settled at 78.4% over the last 90 days (51 tips graded). These factors together support the recommendation.
78.4% on 2 20% probability
Over the last 90 days, 2 tips have returned 40 wins from 51 settled tips (78.4%). This is above our site-wide average of 75.8%, indicating this market type performs particularly well in our analysis.
Key team news is the most likely disruptor: confirmed absences of first-choice players, particularly the goalkeeper or main striker, can shift the probability significantly. Late lineup changes, pitch conditions, or updated injury reports published closer to kickoff should be checked before placing any bet. Odds movement at the bookmaker (shortening or lengthening of the price after publication) may also signal late information entering the market.

Latest Winnings

16 Jul 2026 • Europa League Qualifier Vestri vs Qarabag Over 2.5 @1.41
0-3 ✔
16 Jul 2026 • Europa League Qualifier Derry City vs CSKA Sofia Over 1.5 @1.20
1-2 ✔
16 Jul 2026 • Conference League Qualifier RFS vs Glentoran 1 @1.42
2-0 ✔
16 Jul 2026 • Europa League Qualifier Ferencvaros vs Vojvodina 1 @1.45
3-0 ✔
16 Jul 2026 • Conference League Qualifier Levadia vs Caernarfon 1 @1.20
5-0 ✔
16 Jul 2026 • Conference League Qualifier Pyunik Yerevan vs Marsaxlokk 1 @1.25
1-0 ✔
16 Jul 2026 • Conference League Qualifier Zalgiris vs Petrovac 1 @1.37
2-1 ✔
16 Jul 2026 • Iceland Division 1 Afturelding vs Leiknir 1 @1.37
3-2 ✔
15 Jul 2026 • Club Friendly Patro Eisden vs St Truiden Over 2.5 @1.33
0-4 ✔
15 Jul 2026 • Iceland Besta deild Women Breidablik W vs Vikingur Reykjavik W 1 @1.18
4-1 ✔
15 Jul 2026 • Club Friendly Lyon vs Servette Over 2.5 @1.49
2-1 ✔
15 Jul 2026 • Australia NPL Northern NSW Charlestown Azzurri vs Weston Bears Over 2.5 @1.43
0-5 ✔
15 Jul 2026 • Brazil Catarinense U20 Criciuma U20 vs Concordia U20 1 @1.39
1-0 ✔
15 Jul 2026 • Brazil Catarinense 2 Hercilio Luz vs Gremio Juventus 1 @1.23
1-0 ✔
13 Jul 2026 • China League One Ningbo Professional vs Foshan Nanshi 1X @1.16
1-0 ✔
13 Jul 2026 • Argentina Primera Women San Lorenzo W vs San Luis W 1 @1.35
1-0 ✔
13 Jul 2026 • Brazil Catarinense U20 Barra FC U20 vs Carlos Renaux U20 1 @1.28
3-1 ✔
13 Jul 2026 • Iceland Besta deild karla Breidablik vs Keflavik 1X @1.17
2-1 ✔
13 Jul 2026 • Paraguay Division Intermedia Dep Capiata vs Atl Tembetary Over 1.5 @1.32
1-3 ✔
13 Jul 2026 • Argentina Primera Women Gimnasia L.P. W vs Huracan W 1X @1.17
2-1 ✔

Verified Win Rate
Last 30 days • 161 settled tips
7 days30 days90 days
75.8%
Excellent
Won (122) 75.8%
Lost (39) 24.2%
122W
39L
122
Won
39
Lost
161
Settled
18+ Please gamble responsibly. BeGambleAware

Performance by Market
7d30d90dAll
1 Top market
65W / 18L • 83 tips
78.3%
1X Top market
10W / 3L • 13 tips
76.9%
Over 2.5 Top market
18W / 6L • 24 tips
75%
2 Top market
13W / 5L • 18 tips
72.2%
Over 1.5 Top market
14W / 6L • 20 tips
70%
X2 Solid
2W / 1L • 3 tips
66.7%

Win Rate Grid
Market type × day of week • last 180 days
Market MonTueWedThuFriSatSun Total
1 68% 84% 87% 75% 71% 74% 74% 77%
1X 69% 100% 82% 88% 83% 100% — 84%
2 92% 75% 75% 64% 60% 67% 80% 72%
BTTS — — — — — — — —
Over 1.5 78% 63% 67% 88% 67% 100% — 78%
Over 2.5 69% 68% 72% 68% 60% 75% 75% 69%
X2 — — — — — — — 43%
Key: <42% 42-54% 55-64% 65-74% >=75%

League Momentum
7-day rate vs 30-day baseline • hottest first
Europa League Qualifier
0%baseline 66.7%100%
100%
recent
⬆
+33.3pp
Conference League Qualifier
0%baseline 83.3%100%
100%
recent
⬆
+16.7pp
Argentina Primera Women
0%baseline 100%100%
100%
recent
➡
+0pp
Club Friendly
0%baseline 90%100%
90%
recent
➡
+0pp
Finland Veikkausliiga
0%baseline 80%100%
80%
recent
➡
+0pp
Iceland Besta deild karla
0%baseline 60%100%
60%
recent
➡
+0pp
Latvia Virsliga
0%baseline 60%100%
60%
recent
➡
+0pp
World Cup 2026
0%baseline 82.4%100%
82.4%
recent
➡
+0pp

pp = percentage points vs 30-day baseline. Grey marker = baseline position.


Market Depth Index
Volume vs accuracy • where confidence is highest • last 90 days

Each market is scored on two factors: how often it is published (volume) and how often it succeeds (accuracy). Markets with high depth on both measures represent the strongest areas of the site's analytical record.

1
1
Volume 240 tips
Accuracy 79.6%
High confidence -- published frequently and delivers.
STRONG 191W / 49L
2
Over 2.5
Volume 57 tips
Accuracy 64.9%
Low volume, decent returns. Early evidence of edge.
SOLID 37W / 20L
3
2
Volume 51 tips
Accuracy 78.4%
Selective publishing with strong returns. Targeted edge.
STRONG 40W / 11L
4
Over 1.5
Volume 37 tips
Accuracy 78.4%
Selective publishing with strong returns. Targeted edge.
STRONG 29W / 8L
5
1X
Volume 36 tips
Accuracy 83.3%
Selective publishing with strong returns. Targeted edge.
STRONG 30W / 6L
6
X2
Volume 6 tips
Accuracy 50%
Low volume, decent returns. Early evidence of edge.
SOLID 3W / 3L

Min. 3 settled tips required to appear.


Public Results Record
Last 30 graded tips • updated after every result
83.3%
Accuracy
25
Won
5
Lost
0
Void
30
Total
Date Match Market Result
16 Jul 2026Vestri vs Qarabag
Europa League Qualifier		Over 2.5✓ Won
16 Jul 2026Derry City vs CSKA Sofia
Europa League Qualifier		Over 1.5✓ Won
16 Jul 2026RFS vs Glentoran
Conference League Qualifier		1✓ Won
16 Jul 2026Ferencvaros vs Vojvodina
Europa League Qualifier		1✓ Won
16 Jul 2026Levadia vs Caernarfon
Conference League Qualifier		1✓ Won
16 Jul 2026Pyunik Yerevan vs Marsaxlokk
Conference League Qualifier		1✓ Won
16 Jul 2026Zalgiris vs Petrovac
Conference League Qualifier		1✓ Won
16 Jul 2026Afturelding vs Leiknir
Iceland Division 1		1✓ Won
15 Jul 2026Patro Eisden vs St Truiden
Club Friendly		Over 2.5✓ Won
15 Jul 2026Breidablik W vs Vikingur Reykjavik W
Iceland Besta deild Women		1✓ Won

All results logged before kickoff. Void tips excluded from accuracy calculation. Click any match for full details.


Market Consistency Tracker
Rolling 30-day windows over 90 days • steadiest markets first

A high win rate is only part of the picture. This tracker shows whether each market delivers consistently or in streaks. Steady markets produce more predictable returns over time.

1 avg 80.2% • range ±1.6%
Steady
78.3%
0-30d
81.6%
30-60d
80.7%
60-90d

Win rate has been consistent across all three rolling windows. Reliable market for planning.

1X avg 84.2% • range ±6%
Steady
76.9%
0-30d
86.7%
30-60d
88.9%
60-90d

Win rate has been consistent across all three rolling windows. Reliable market for planning.

2 avg 78.9% • range ±6.8%
Variable
72.2%
0-30d
78.9%
30-60d
85.7%
60-90d

Some variation across rolling windows. Performance is directional but not uniform.

Over 2.5 avg 62.1% • range ±10.9%
Variable
75%
0-30d
57.9%
30-60d
53.3%
60-90d

Some variation across rolling windows. Performance is directional but not uniform.

Over 1.5 avg 80.8% • range ±11.1%
Variable
70%
0-30d
92.3%
30-60d
80%
60-90d

Some variation across rolling windows. Performance is directional but not uniform.

Steady = <=12pp spread. Variable = 13-25pp. Volatile = >25pp. Min. 5 tips per window to display. Windows run oldest to newest (left to right).


75.8%
30-day win rate
161 verified tips
86.2%
7-Day Rate
122
Tips Won
39
Tips Lost
161
Settled
Full Results →

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